Runoff simulation using SWAT model and SUFI-2 algorithm (Case study: Shafaroud watershed, Guilan Province, Iran)

Reliable estimates of runoff are required as a part of the information sets that help watershed managers make informed decisions on water resources planning and management. This study was carried out in Shafaroud watershed located in the north of Iran. In order to achieve the best runoff simulation in the study area, first rainfall data of four stations during 1998 to 2011 were collected and combined with other maps of the study area, such as Digital Elevation Model (DEM), land use and soil as input data in the form ofSoil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) model. After running the model, the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm in SWAT calibration and uncertainty program (SWAT-CUP) were used to evaluate the data uncertainty and the most accurate simulation. The first three years (1998-2000) of rainfall data for warm-up and the next 7 years (2001-2007) for the calibration and final 4 years (2008-2011) were used for the validation period. Finally, with multiple simulations, the uncertainty of the parameters was assessed with P-factor, R-factor,  and NS coefficients. The results of validation period ( =0.85, NS=0.74) confirmed the potential of SUFI-2 algorithm of SWAT-CUP program for simulating runoff data in the study area.